![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
Entry tags:
The silent scramble for the Balkans
French president Macron recently expressed his skepticism about a possible further EU expansion. It's evident, however, that not all EU members share his attitude. So when they convened in Poznan, Poland, last month, specifically to discuss the Western Balkans, the leaders of most members states (including Angela Merkel) actually took the opposite stance. As Merkel herself said, although she agreed with Macron's opinion about the need for revamping the EU-joining mechanisms, she didn't necessarily link that process with the admission negotiations with potential new members.
Of course when we're talking of EU expansion, what's usually meant is the Balkan countries that are still not part of it. For instance, Macedonia was promised that the negotiations process would start immediately after it ratified the change of its name to Northern Macedonia. But that didn't happen - mostly because the North European countries had reservations about further EU expansion, just like Macron. Still, Merkel did express optimism that the negotiations would start at the end of the year.
The Macedonian question is delicate, because it's clear the name change was solely dictated by their aspiration to start the so called Euro-Atlantic integration, i.e. to become part of both NATO and the EU. So, if the EU negotiations don't start at all, some people in Skopje could decide it has changed its name in vain. The EU commissioner for expansion Johannes Hahn recently said he's certain that stalling with the joining process is not a good solution, because when the candidate countries are fulfilling their obligations, it's only reasonable that the EU should reciprocate. Otherwise they'd allow for the emergence of a vacuum that Europe's geopolitical rivals would be sure to fill (he meant Russia, Turkey and China). And that's not in Europe's interests.
However, Hahn conveniently omitted to mention one other potential rival, and I think he did it on purpose, for political reasons. And that is of course the United States. It's a fact that Europe has long quit the policy of halting its expansion (especially after the collapse of Yugoslavia), which means all other Balkan non-EU countries would sooner or later have to join somebody.
All of those countries - Bosnia-Herzegovina, Serbia, Montenegro, (North) Macedonia and Albania - are aspiring to join the EU. Of course there's internal debate within them as well. By the way, such debate was held very actively in Croatia, which needed an entire decade (2003-2013) to complete the joining process. But those debates were more like an indication of a vibrant democratic society, and a final decision taken democratically - although the final decision always belongs to the elites who are pursuing their own political and economic interests. And those in the Balkans are very much interested in joining the shared economic zone. As for the commonfolk, well, they'd just have to "adjust" to the ne realities. Although, as the Croatian example shows, that doesn't necessarily always end well, given the current emigration wave away from the country.
But let's go back to Johannes Hahn and his statements. He's right of course, in saying Russia, China and Turkey are Europe's rivals who are eager to increase their influence in the Balkans, and they'd surely try to do that if the Western Balkan countries fail to join the EU in time. Russia and Turkey already have certain levers for political influence in the region, and it's clear which those are (of course, political influence is always predicated on economic influence - after all, that's the whole point.
That said, and given the fact that the situation is not very likely to change for the time being, it's probably good for the Balkans that Russia and Turkey are currently friends. Because if those two start quarrelling, their confrontation would certianly be transferred to the Balkans as well, both sides using their respective local proxies, and the Balkans would again be in grave danger, as has happened so many times in the past. That mostly concerns Serbia and Bosnia-Herzegovina, the latter always being one step away from disintegration.
Now, China deserves some special attention. Since that behemoth is not integrated politically or culturally with any Balkan community, China will simply opt for using the Balkans as a transit corridor towards spreading its tentacles further into Europe, mostly relying on its economic might. And this is going to happen very soon, unless the West somehow reaches the conclusion that it needs to drop yet another Iron Curtain across the region, this time against China and its influence. After all, China is interested in guaranteeing not so much a lasting political loyalty for itself, as much as a favorable business climate. And here I'm talking about a specific project, the Chinese New Silk Road, which is supposed to include the Balkans. This means the logistics for spreading this economic influence must be developed, possibly into several directions simultaneously.
But even if all the above mentioned Western Balkan countries somehow miraculously do join both NATO and the EU (which is not going to happen), Russia, China and Turkey's influence still won't go away. Johannes Hahn may prefer not to mention this, but at least he's not hiding his concern that their economic influence could increase to a point where the local ruling elites (political and economical) would radically change their current geopolitical orientation, and decide they don't need the EU that badly after all. Indeed, Hahn should be slightly worried about such a scenario (if he's worried for real, that is), but probably not too much - at least for now. Because these three rivals to the EU still haven't offered an alternative that's attractive enough to cause such a shift.
But what could we say about the conveniently omitted EU rival that is the US? That's another interesting topic. But first let's look at some important factors. Firstly, what role is the US playing right now? And in the short-term future? Is Trump's America merely a glitch, a temporary regime incidentally occurring and hopelessly squeezed between the two dominant party elites? Or are we speaking of a completely new type of America that's already moving in a direction different from what we've become used to? That'll ultimately define the ultimate fate of the Balkans. Because Trump is actually the last person who'd want to see an expanding EU. What's more, if he wins a second term he'd be trying to further undermine the EU through Brexit and other possible similar exits, and much more actively than now. Besides, Macron has already indicated that he's more prone to support Trump if he deems it more beneficial for France and for him personally (just look at his stance on Syria, his criticism of Iran's ballistic program, etc). He'd likely side with Trump because he believes the US would support his aspirations for a leading role in the EU (or rather, what remains of it).
That said, if we assume the US has really taken a direction of "America first", it wouldn't be a surprise they might decide to take direct control of the Balkans. In such a case, it stands to reason that they wouldn't want to allow anyone else's influence in the region.
One of the main tools that the US is delpoying to guarantee the loyalty of the non-EU countries, is of course the USAID program. It recently published it Balkan Strategy, and a couple months ago they added a plan for countering Russia's influence. It includes 4 major goals: protecting the European countries from external meddling; countering disinformation campaigns from rivals; decreasing Europe's dependence on Russian energy resources; and decreasing the EU's dependence on trade with Russia.
The Balkans are naturally at the center of this plan, which is confirmed by USAID's statement that 11 strategic media partners in Bosnia, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia and Serbia will be granted increased funding, aiming to boost their exposure, to help them gain more prominence, and difersify their income through expanding their presence in the world of digital technologies. In other words, we should be expecting millions of dollars being poured at a number of regional media, who'll be expected to take a noticeably pro-American and anti-Russian stance. Of course, there's no way in the world those media could be called truly independent, that's absurd. But in this case the plan relies (and quite correctly) that the mass public wouldn't bother to find out who really stands behind one media or another.
In a nutshell, this is about a coordinated pushback against creeping Russian influence on the Balkans, Russia of course being determined as the main target because it's always the enemy by default (remember the Empire of Evil). USAID just can't openly publish a plan for fighting, say, Turkish influence - but that doesn't mean the Agency doesn't intend to fight that, too. In turn, the fight against Chinese influence is self-understood. And that still doesn't negate the possibility of USAID potentially deciding to shift toward fighting EU expansionism on the Balkans too at some point. Of course, we shouldn't be expecting any official statements in that direction, because, despite all their industriousness, the US still don't have enough ideological arguments against Europe. Whatever they say, the human rights and democracy situation is still way better in Europe than in America itself (an argument frequently used by the latter for meddling in various other regions around the world).
In conclusion, I'd say it's obvious that the EU isn't giving much thought to the fact that pretty soon, their interests could clash on the Balkans with a much bigger rival than Russia, Turkey or China. And that rival is the US. There's traditionally a competition of ideas within the EU, very much defined by a regional principle. For instance, Eastern Europe is convinced its representatives are being deliberately kept away from the most important positions in Brussels, especially now that a French and a German lady have been appointed there (Christine Lagarde and Ursula von der Leien, respectively), In the meantime, America's staunches ally within the EU, Polish president Duda, has called for accelerated admission negotiations with the Western balkans, particularly North Macedonia and Albania. At the Poznan meeting, he said the EU cannot treat countries who've done tough reforms in the name of their Euro integration the way it currently is. So why would Duda insist for a faster EU expansion, you may wonder? Probably because Poland itself has been fighting a mini war on Brussels for years now, and the emergence of a few potential natural Polish allies from South-East Europe would be nice.
It's possible that these calculations are making Macron so nervous (as well as some other minor West European leaders). He could be calculating the future balance of votes in EU decision-making. In turn, Merkel supports the EU expansion because clearly, Germany would be the one country to benefit the most from such a process.
So, at the end of the day, could it turn out that Macedonia changed its name for nothing? Well, probably the Macedonians will have to wait a while until they join the EU, especially if the current allies, Europe and America, become rivals.
Unfortunately, that's exactly where things seem to be going under Trump. Of course, the Macedonian prime minister Zoran Zaev claims his people are prepared to do everything in their powers to change the mind of the more skeptical EU member states. He said he's hoping his reforms would help confince France and the rest that a positive decision for starting membership negotiations is in the EU's best interests. By the way, he has already done more than enough, so he should rest assured his efforts won't go unnoticed. All he'll have to do is have some patience, and closely watch the European-American relations - because that's what's going to influence the future of the Balkans. For the time being, North Macedonia could comfortably claim its first consolation prize, the NATO memebership. While that's not too beneficial for the country from an economic standpoint, it'll serve as stimulus to give hopes to those who want an accelerated Euro integration for Macedonia. Even if it's only half the way there. But there's always the risk that things could halt there, and that would be bad in the long term. After all, Macedonia is no Norway. But hopefully, the European leaders would see somewhat further beyond the tip of their noses, at least this time around.
Of course when we're talking of EU expansion, what's usually meant is the Balkan countries that are still not part of it. For instance, Macedonia was promised that the negotiations process would start immediately after it ratified the change of its name to Northern Macedonia. But that didn't happen - mostly because the North European countries had reservations about further EU expansion, just like Macron. Still, Merkel did express optimism that the negotiations would start at the end of the year.
The Macedonian question is delicate, because it's clear the name change was solely dictated by their aspiration to start the so called Euro-Atlantic integration, i.e. to become part of both NATO and the EU. So, if the EU negotiations don't start at all, some people in Skopje could decide it has changed its name in vain. The EU commissioner for expansion Johannes Hahn recently said he's certain that stalling with the joining process is not a good solution, because when the candidate countries are fulfilling their obligations, it's only reasonable that the EU should reciprocate. Otherwise they'd allow for the emergence of a vacuum that Europe's geopolitical rivals would be sure to fill (he meant Russia, Turkey and China). And that's not in Europe's interests.
However, Hahn conveniently omitted to mention one other potential rival, and I think he did it on purpose, for political reasons. And that is of course the United States. It's a fact that Europe has long quit the policy of halting its expansion (especially after the collapse of Yugoslavia), which means all other Balkan non-EU countries would sooner or later have to join somebody.
All of those countries - Bosnia-Herzegovina, Serbia, Montenegro, (North) Macedonia and Albania - are aspiring to join the EU. Of course there's internal debate within them as well. By the way, such debate was held very actively in Croatia, which needed an entire decade (2003-2013) to complete the joining process. But those debates were more like an indication of a vibrant democratic society, and a final decision taken democratically - although the final decision always belongs to the elites who are pursuing their own political and economic interests. And those in the Balkans are very much interested in joining the shared economic zone. As for the commonfolk, well, they'd just have to "adjust" to the ne realities. Although, as the Croatian example shows, that doesn't necessarily always end well, given the current emigration wave away from the country.
But let's go back to Johannes Hahn and his statements. He's right of course, in saying Russia, China and Turkey are Europe's rivals who are eager to increase their influence in the Balkans, and they'd surely try to do that if the Western Balkan countries fail to join the EU in time. Russia and Turkey already have certain levers for political influence in the region, and it's clear which those are (of course, political influence is always predicated on economic influence - after all, that's the whole point.
That said, and given the fact that the situation is not very likely to change for the time being, it's probably good for the Balkans that Russia and Turkey are currently friends. Because if those two start quarrelling, their confrontation would certianly be transferred to the Balkans as well, both sides using their respective local proxies, and the Balkans would again be in grave danger, as has happened so many times in the past. That mostly concerns Serbia and Bosnia-Herzegovina, the latter always being one step away from disintegration.
Now, China deserves some special attention. Since that behemoth is not integrated politically or culturally with any Balkan community, China will simply opt for using the Balkans as a transit corridor towards spreading its tentacles further into Europe, mostly relying on its economic might. And this is going to happen very soon, unless the West somehow reaches the conclusion that it needs to drop yet another Iron Curtain across the region, this time against China and its influence. After all, China is interested in guaranteeing not so much a lasting political loyalty for itself, as much as a favorable business climate. And here I'm talking about a specific project, the Chinese New Silk Road, which is supposed to include the Balkans. This means the logistics for spreading this economic influence must be developed, possibly into several directions simultaneously.
But even if all the above mentioned Western Balkan countries somehow miraculously do join both NATO and the EU (which is not going to happen), Russia, China and Turkey's influence still won't go away. Johannes Hahn may prefer not to mention this, but at least he's not hiding his concern that their economic influence could increase to a point where the local ruling elites (political and economical) would radically change their current geopolitical orientation, and decide they don't need the EU that badly after all. Indeed, Hahn should be slightly worried about such a scenario (if he's worried for real, that is), but probably not too much - at least for now. Because these three rivals to the EU still haven't offered an alternative that's attractive enough to cause such a shift.
But what could we say about the conveniently omitted EU rival that is the US? That's another interesting topic. But first let's look at some important factors. Firstly, what role is the US playing right now? And in the short-term future? Is Trump's America merely a glitch, a temporary regime incidentally occurring and hopelessly squeezed between the two dominant party elites? Or are we speaking of a completely new type of America that's already moving in a direction different from what we've become used to? That'll ultimately define the ultimate fate of the Balkans. Because Trump is actually the last person who'd want to see an expanding EU. What's more, if he wins a second term he'd be trying to further undermine the EU through Brexit and other possible similar exits, and much more actively than now. Besides, Macron has already indicated that he's more prone to support Trump if he deems it more beneficial for France and for him personally (just look at his stance on Syria, his criticism of Iran's ballistic program, etc). He'd likely side with Trump because he believes the US would support his aspirations for a leading role in the EU (or rather, what remains of it).
That said, if we assume the US has really taken a direction of "America first", it wouldn't be a surprise they might decide to take direct control of the Balkans. In such a case, it stands to reason that they wouldn't want to allow anyone else's influence in the region.
One of the main tools that the US is delpoying to guarantee the loyalty of the non-EU countries, is of course the USAID program. It recently published it Balkan Strategy, and a couple months ago they added a plan for countering Russia's influence. It includes 4 major goals: protecting the European countries from external meddling; countering disinformation campaigns from rivals; decreasing Europe's dependence on Russian energy resources; and decreasing the EU's dependence on trade with Russia.
The Balkans are naturally at the center of this plan, which is confirmed by USAID's statement that 11 strategic media partners in Bosnia, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia and Serbia will be granted increased funding, aiming to boost their exposure, to help them gain more prominence, and difersify their income through expanding their presence in the world of digital technologies. In other words, we should be expecting millions of dollars being poured at a number of regional media, who'll be expected to take a noticeably pro-American and anti-Russian stance. Of course, there's no way in the world those media could be called truly independent, that's absurd. But in this case the plan relies (and quite correctly) that the mass public wouldn't bother to find out who really stands behind one media or another.
In a nutshell, this is about a coordinated pushback against creeping Russian influence on the Balkans, Russia of course being determined as the main target because it's always the enemy by default (remember the Empire of Evil). USAID just can't openly publish a plan for fighting, say, Turkish influence - but that doesn't mean the Agency doesn't intend to fight that, too. In turn, the fight against Chinese influence is self-understood. And that still doesn't negate the possibility of USAID potentially deciding to shift toward fighting EU expansionism on the Balkans too at some point. Of course, we shouldn't be expecting any official statements in that direction, because, despite all their industriousness, the US still don't have enough ideological arguments against Europe. Whatever they say, the human rights and democracy situation is still way better in Europe than in America itself (an argument frequently used by the latter for meddling in various other regions around the world).
In conclusion, I'd say it's obvious that the EU isn't giving much thought to the fact that pretty soon, their interests could clash on the Balkans with a much bigger rival than Russia, Turkey or China. And that rival is the US. There's traditionally a competition of ideas within the EU, very much defined by a regional principle. For instance, Eastern Europe is convinced its representatives are being deliberately kept away from the most important positions in Brussels, especially now that a French and a German lady have been appointed there (Christine Lagarde and Ursula von der Leien, respectively), In the meantime, America's staunches ally within the EU, Polish president Duda, has called for accelerated admission negotiations with the Western balkans, particularly North Macedonia and Albania. At the Poznan meeting, he said the EU cannot treat countries who've done tough reforms in the name of their Euro integration the way it currently is. So why would Duda insist for a faster EU expansion, you may wonder? Probably because Poland itself has been fighting a mini war on Brussels for years now, and the emergence of a few potential natural Polish allies from South-East Europe would be nice.
It's possible that these calculations are making Macron so nervous (as well as some other minor West European leaders). He could be calculating the future balance of votes in EU decision-making. In turn, Merkel supports the EU expansion because clearly, Germany would be the one country to benefit the most from such a process.
So, at the end of the day, could it turn out that Macedonia changed its name for nothing? Well, probably the Macedonians will have to wait a while until they join the EU, especially if the current allies, Europe and America, become rivals.
Unfortunately, that's exactly where things seem to be going under Trump. Of course, the Macedonian prime minister Zoran Zaev claims his people are prepared to do everything in their powers to change the mind of the more skeptical EU member states. He said he's hoping his reforms would help confince France and the rest that a positive decision for starting membership negotiations is in the EU's best interests. By the way, he has already done more than enough, so he should rest assured his efforts won't go unnoticed. All he'll have to do is have some patience, and closely watch the European-American relations - because that's what's going to influence the future of the Balkans. For the time being, North Macedonia could comfortably claim its first consolation prize, the NATO memebership. While that's not too beneficial for the country from an economic standpoint, it'll serve as stimulus to give hopes to those who want an accelerated Euro integration for Macedonia. Even if it's only half the way there. But there's always the risk that things could halt there, and that would be bad in the long term. After all, Macedonia is no Norway. But hopefully, the European leaders would see somewhat further beyond the tip of their noses, at least this time around.